Experts predict steep cancer rate rise over next two decades
Scientists have predicted that by 2030, global cancer rates will have increased by 75%.
Their somewhat alarming prediction comes following a study based on a snapshot of cancer statistics collected from 184 countries in 2008 by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). From their findings, they predict an increase in new cancer cases worldwide from 12.7 million in 2008 to 22.2 million by 2030, with the spread of unhealthy Western lifestyles to developing countries cited as a key reason for the increase.
The experts have predicted a fall in cancers linked to infection, but a rise in those related to lifestyle choices as Western lifestyle habits spread to developing countries. Their report, published in The Lancet Oncology journal, showed how cancer patterns varied according to four levels of human development, measured on a Human Development Index (HDI) scale. Currently, countries with a low HDI score suffer more from cancers caused by infection - such as cervical, stomach and liver cancer. Richer countries with higher HDI scores tend to see more lifestyle related cancers – including bowel, breast and prostate cancers.
In 2008, almost 40% of global cases of cancer occurred in highly developed countries, even though these regions contained just 15% of the world’s population. Researchers now estimate cancer cases in the world’s poorest countries could rise 90% by 2030 – due to more people eating convenience food, rising obesity levels and higher levels of smoking. Currently, about 30% of cancer deaths are due to the five leading behavioural and dietary risks: high body mass index, low fruit and vegetable intake, lack of physical activity, tobacco use, alcohol use.
Dr Freddie Bray, from the International Agency for Research on Cancer in Lyon, France, led the study. He commented: “Cancer is already the leading cause of death in many high-income countries and is set to become a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the next decades in every nation of the world.”
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Source – expathealth.org
